How to lose when batting first: SRH and PBKS must avoid the 2026 chase trap

The numbers do not lie. Five matches into IPL 2026, and five times the chasing team has crossed the line. CSK gunned down 160 with 11 balls to spare. DC made 226 look pedestrian. Even GT's modest 158 proved enough when RCB folded for 155. The pattern is clear: win the toss, bowl first, win the match.

Today's doubleheader will test whether this chase-heavy start represents a genuine shift or statistical noise. SRH face KKR at 3:30, followed by GT hosting PBKS at 7:30. Both fixtures pit teams desperate to avoid the batting-first curse against opponents who have mastered the art of the hunt.

The venue factor cannot be ignored. Eden Gardens has historically favored the team bowling first — dew settles heavy in Kolkata, and the pitch tends to ease out under lights. KKR's decision to chase in their opener against RR made perfect sense. They restricted the Royals to 228, then watched Donovan Ferreira tear apart their bowling attack in the final overs.

SRH arrive with different problems. Their 249-run demolition of MI was built on Heinrich Klaasen's unbeaten 87, but it came while chasing. Can their top order set targets on spinning tracks? Abhishek Sharma strikes at 145 in powerplays but averages just 24 against quality spin. KKR's Sunil Narine and Varun Chakaravarthy will test that weakness early.

The key battle shapes up between SRH's pace depth and KKR's middle-order fragility. Pat Cummins and Bhuvneshwar Kumar have taken 12 wickets between them, but both struggled in their last outing when batsmen attacked the new ball. KKR's batting revolves around Andre Russell at number five — if SRH can isolate him with scoreboard pressure, their seam attack becomes lethal.

KKR's blueprint is simpler: survive the powerplay, then unleash Russell and Nitish Rana in the middle overs. Russell strikes at 182 between overs 7-15 this season, but that sample includes just one match. More telling is his career record against SRH: 34 runs in three innings, all dismissed by pace bowlers.

The evening clash presents a different puzzle. PBKS have posted 222 in their lone outing but lost by six wickets to RR. Their batting lineup looks formidable on paper — Shikhar Dhawan, Liam Livingstone, and Jitesh Sharma can all clear boundaries at will. Yet they failed to defend 222 on a batting paradise in Jaipur.

GT's bowling attack, led by Rashid Khan and Mohammad Shami, poses different questions. Rashid has dismissed left-handers 23 times in 47 balls this tournament cycle — bad news for Dhawan and Sam Curran. PBKS must target Rashid early, before he settles into his rhythm. The leg-spinner averages 31 with the ball when attacked in his first two overs, compared to 18 when allowed to bowl himself in.

The call

Both matches will be won by the team that handles scoreboard pressure best. SRH should target 180-plus if they bat first, knowing KKR's middle order lacks depth beyond Russell. Anything under 170 gives KKR's top three too much margin for error.

PBKS face a tougher ask. GT's Narayan Jagadeesan and Sai Sudharsan have both scored fifties while chasing this season. If PBKS bat first, they need early wickets from Kagiso Rabada and Arshdeep Singh. Let GT build partnerships, and the chase becomes academic.

Five straight successful chases means the toss has become a tactical minefield — but cricket rewards the brave.

— Ravi Krishnan

Ravi Krishnan Fantasy Strategy Editor CricketMind AI